2009 College Football Preview - Big 12 North
The SportsBoss commences his College Football Previews this week with the Big 12. In this edition, he tackles the North division. After years of being one of the worst divisions in Major conference college football, there were some bright lights last season and this season figures to continue that improvement. Even though the division doesn’t have the top flight teams the South does, the depth is improving and the return of Bill Snyder to the Kansas State sideline should only boost that.
1. Kansas (9-3, 6-2): The Jayhawks head into 2009 a focused, angry team after failing to build off 2007’s Orange Bowl campaign. At 8-5, 4-4 last season, things were widely regarded as a disappointment in Lawrence – which is strange as a record like that is usually highly successful there. Coming back for his Sr season is Todd Reesing, one of the most exciting and best dual threat QBs in the country. I wouldn’t be surprised if he found himself in the mix for the Heisman Trophy when November rolls around, though Tebow, McCoy and Bradford probably have first dibbs on that. Joining him on offense is RB Scott, who rushed for 860yds and 12 TDs last season. He might not be as effective this season as they need to replace their interior OL, but he is talented and will still be productive and a probable NFL talent. On the outside they return their top 2 playmakers from last season in Briscoe and Meier. Both of them went over 1000 yards last season, and Briscoe caught 15 of the 23 TD passes they combined for. They will all be part of what will be the best offense in the Big 12 North (there are a few pretty solid offenses in the South if you haven’t heard already). Defensively, Coach Mangino will be changing the scheme to a 4-2-5 for multiple reasons: overall the Big 12 is a pass happy league with some great QBs (McCoy and Bradford), and some experienced ones (Hawkins and Robinson), and the strength of the defense is clearly their Secondary. They return their entire back 4, but lose their LBs, who were big time playmakers and leaders. The new LBs stepping in won’t have the same size as the departed, but will be faster and more athletic. Overall the defense will struggle against physical, run first teams; but in the Big 12, they won’t face many of those so they should be fairly well equipped to hold their own. Quite simply, the Jayhawks will rely on outscoring opponents and having great play from their secondary to try and win the Big 12 North. Schedule wise, 3 of their 4 OOC opponents visit Lawrence, with one big one against Southern Mississippi, a Top 20 team in my rankings. They get lucky as Oklahoma State rotates off their schedule, but they will be facing OU at home and Texas on the road, along with a key division road game at Colorado. Don’t be shocked to see a great game when they host Oklahoma in Lawrence as the Sooners will be bouncing back after the Red River Shootout the week before. I don’t see a double digit win regular season for Kansas, but they are my pick to win the Big 12 North.
2. Nebraska (8-4, 5-3): Bo Pelini’s return to Lincoln was extremely successful in his first season, going 9-4 overall, winning their last 4 and 6 of their last 7. And it wasn’t so much the return of the black shirts as it was an explosive offense that averaged 35+ pts per game. Taking over at QB will be Lee, who is a very solid dual threat QB and will run more than Ganz last season. However, his passing game will not be as strong so it will take a tweak to the offensive game plans to even stay close to as productive as last season. Joining him in the backfield will be Helu and Castille, who provide the best 1-2 RB punch in the Big 12 North and will help break-in the new QB. At WR, the top two targets are gone in Swift and Peterson, but they have some nice athletes ready to step in and be productive. The stars of the passing game however should be TEs McNeill, Cotton and Reed, who form the top trifecta of TEs in the country. This season the team could be carried by the defense, as the entire back seven returns which will be a major asset in the Big 12. In addition, DT Suh is one of the best in the country and will lead a very athletic, pass rushing defensive line that might be the best at pressuring the QB in the Big 12. Their conference slate is extremely favorable, missing both Texas and Oklahoma State. And they do have 3 road games against their North foes, but they should be manageable. In OOC games, they have a big one against Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. Anything less than a division title and Big 12 Title game appearance will be a disappointment for the Cornhuskers this season.
3. Colorado (6-6, 4-4): Dan Hawkins has pretty much struggled in Boulder since coming over from Boise State. The Buffs are looking to go .500 or better this season for the first time since 2005, and I think they have the players to get it done and challenge in the Big 12 North. Cody Hawkins returns at QB to lead an offense that returns 8 starters and should score some points. However two of the losses on offense are at WR, and there are not really any talented players with experience ready to step in. This could be a major issue this season as they will be forced to rely on a lot of freshman on the outside, never a good recipe for success. Easing their transition and helping carry some of the load will be RB Scott, the big time recruit of 2008 that failed to produce to that level last season. This season should be a different story, and he will get plenty of opportunity to run and catch the ball. Last season they averaged 24pts in their last 4 games, so they will look to build off that success in the coming season. It will have to get better and score more points in the offense happy Big 12, especially when reviewing the Buffs defense which might be the cause for concern once again. Only four starters return including losing their entire defensive line. The strong point is that 3 of the team’s top 4 tacklers from last season are back for another year in Boulder. The strength of the defense will be the LB corp, which is very solid and fast. In addition, the secondary will be a solid unit that should be able to combat some of the aggressive passing schemes they will face this season. This defense gave up 24 or most points in 7 of 8 conference games, and 30 or more in 5 of the 8 conference games. If the defense doesn’t get better, Hawkins could find himself on the hot seat. Out of conference games aren’t as tough as usual for the Buffs, but a trip to Morgantown against West Virginia wont be a walk in the park, especially with the ‘Neers thinking revenge from last years loss. Conference schedule is tough, with trips to Oklahoma State and Texas, but Oklahoma rotates off. On a bright note, their three main contenders in the North division travel to Boulder. There isn’t much margin for error in the conference slate, but the Buffs will have experience and a solid QB on their side.
4. Missouri (5-7, 4-4): The Tigers in 2008 were a major disappointment on many people’s radar, despite winning 10 games and going to the Alamo Bowl. The expectations were sky high following the great 1 loss campaign in 2007, and with the return of a ton of starters including QB Daniel. However, the Tigers didn’t handle the expectations well and fell short of their first BCS bowl bid. This season will be a major step back from the last 2, with only 9 starters returning to Columbia and the loss of Daniel. However, all is not sour at Missouri as Pinkel has done a fabulous job recruiting, and the argument can be made the new players stepping in this season are more talented than a lot of the players they are replacing. Starting at QB, where ultra talented Gabbert is stepping in to try and fill the massive shoes of Daniel. Many think Gabbert has the talent to play on Sundays, and this will be his first shot at showing America what he has. Joining him on offense will be speedy receivers Jones and Egnew. In the backfield, Washington (1078 yards and 17 TDs last season) and Moore will form a nice two headed monster, and they compliment each other well. Pinkel is looking to become a more balanced offense this year as relying on Daniel too much last season might have been the cause of many of their losses. Defensively, the Tigers will be lead by LB Weatherspoon, quite possibly the best LB in the country and likely Top 10 draft pick. He will be a menacing tackler, and great leader on a defense that will need one with all the new players they are breaking in. The major Achilles last season was the secondary that was near last in the entire country in yards allowed. This is the perfect example of addition by subtraction, as only 1 starter returns and a ton of new talent will be stepping in to fill the voids, led by S Jackson. The defensive line, a big strength of last season should once again be a solid piece of the team and assist the breaking in of new talent in the secondary. The Tigers have some guys that will play on Sundays on their defense, in particular on the line. The schedule isn’t favorable at all, with a tough OOC slate that includes Illinois, at Nevada, and I-AA powerhouse Furman. In conference they do miss Oklahoma, but play at Oklahoma State and host Texas. Outside the road trip to Stillwater, the road games are manageable and if the Tigers improve with experience as the season goes on, they could put up a nice record and possibly challenge for the North division title, as there will be no expectations for such.
5. Kansas State (5-7, 2-6): Coach Snyder returns to the sidelines of Manhattan, much to the pleasure of this writer. KSU was an annual Big 12 title contender, and an occasional discussion point regarding the National Title when he was manning the sidelines from the early 90s to mid 00s. After watching Ron Prince struggle mightily, he has returned in hopes of getting things back on track one more time before calling it a career. But this year will be a struggle as he accesses the talent he has on his roster, implements his own system, and tries to recruit players to fit his scheme so they can become a conference player next season and beyond. On offense, the QBs on the roster will be like trying to fit a square peg into a round hole: Prince wanted big, rocket arm QBs that were relatively pocket passers, while Snyder prefers the mobile, run first QB. They do have some experience at WR that should help the Cats score some points, but it will certainly be a work in progress as the two systems try and blend together for some success. Defensively they are strong across the line, particularly at DE where they have some NFL talent residing. What’s more, CB Moore will lock down one side of the field in pass defense, which should help open up some responsibilities for other players on the defense. Other than that, it’s been a real struggle against both the pass and rush the last few seasons. Snyder will try and find some players that can assist in stopping the run, and slowing down the potent passing offenses they will face. The defense will be improved, but won’t be near the level needed to challenge for a title. This will be the last year in the near future that KSU travels outside Manhattan for any OOC games, as Snyder believes in tuning up against inferior opponents at home prior to opening conference play. This year they travel to UCLA and La Lafayette. Their conference schedule isn’t brutal by any stretch, avoiding Texas and Oklahoma State, and they close with 4 of their last 6 at home - the two road games in Lawrence and Norman will be doozies though. Expect a few bright moments, but too many head scratching to offset that favorable ones.
6. Iowa State (2-10, 1-7): Gene Chizik is out in Ames, as he has moved on to Auburn so Paul Rhoads takes over the reigns for the Cyclones. The flat out issue with the Cyclones most years is they just don’t have as much talent as the rest of the conference, and this coming season will be no different. Offensively there will be a definite different system and explosion than what we have seen recently from ISU. OC Herman takes over that side of the ball which returns 9 starters, bringing his shotgun system from Rice where he had moderate success. Leading the O will be QB Arnaud, a rising playmaker in the Big 12. He will be supported by a decent trio of RBs Robinson, Williams and Schwartz. There aren’t too many name players on the outside, but there is depth – there will be some bumps in the road along the learning curve, but the offense should be moderately productive, and could even turn into a steady offense if Arnaud progresses as the coaching staff anticipates, and the 9 starters that are returning adjust well to the new system and game-plans. The main issue is on defense (6 starters return), and the argument could be made they were the worst defense vs. the run and pass (Missouri could challenge for worst pass defense last season). Undersized, they will try and blow thru gaps instead of through the opposition and hope to wreak some havoc using that style. They have some nice pieces in the secondary to leverage, but they will need some help from the less talented line to have any hope of being productive and holding teams under 30pts on a weekly basis. The schedule isn’t absolutely brutal facing Iowa at home, and missing Texas and Oklahoma. But this team is sorely lacking in talent, so a 4 win season would be a great start for Rhoads and company.
