Our NFL Model has gone 40-26 or 61%
PLUS 52 UNITS over the last 2 seasons!!

In NCAA Football we have gone 173-118
or 60% PLUS 217 UNITS over the last 2
seasons!!

Combining the last 2 football seasons of
every play we released we HIT 58.3%
and PROFITED 348 UNITS!.  SOAK THOSE
NUMBERS IN!  A MAX BET $500 PLAYER
WOULD BE UP $34,800!!!


2009 NFL SEASON: Judging on last years success the BOSS and his clients are in for another profitable NFL
season, using either my model or qualitative handicapping skills.  Lets look at my predictor model, hands down the best in
the industry....Whats new this season?  After reading two additional NFL Handicapping books from well respected authors, I
have added numerous statistical categories to measure teams on and adjust our dual power ratings.  New this season
include first downs, opponents record and schedule strength, gain per offensive play, third and fourth down conversion
percentages along with additional defensive categories each team is measured on each game.  Along with adding stats we
have made the process of changing power ratings uniform and removed the subjectivity and human error from the process.  
Doing that was a tiresome statistical process involving testing, correlations and regression analysis, but we now feel more
comfortable than ever that this model is robust, intuitive, analytical and more important will make money for my clients.  It
also cut down my weekly upkeep on it as most is now automated which will give me additional time to handicap each game
non-inclusive of the model.  To recap the process involving the model:

  • uses two separate power rating systems
  • 12 different statistical categories on both offense and defense that move those power ratings
  • movement of one power rating has to do with how well teams do over a multiple week period in all categories
    combined; certain thresholds need to be met in each category to move up or down
  • the second power rating moves purely on a formula that relates to ATS margin

Once both power ratings are finalized for a given week for each team, I look at the schedule and compare the difference
between both teams ratings including a margin for home field advantage.  This spread then becomes my "numerical gap",
which then gets tweaked by half point to a point after a minor series of tests related to emotional edges in games.  After
completing that testing, I have my predicted margin of victory for one team or another.

My predicted margin of victory is compared to the actual line of the game set by Vegas, and if it differs by a certain gap I
have defined for my eyes only, it then becomes a play.

Keep in mind, lines are not set to predict the final margin of the game, they are set in hopes of getting 50% of money on the
favorite, and 50% of money on the underdog.  Vegas sets lines on Sunday evening for the following week taking into
consideration how teams have faired every week that season, how teams have faired recently, trends between the two
teams, and most importantly the action the bookmakers have seen on each team weekly.  

This tool strips out all the subjective data the odds-makers use when setting their lines, and just looks at pure performance
on the field.- one set of power ratings adjusts for statistical performance while the second adjusts for performance against
Vegas' spreads.  Certain stats are key to winning football games, but most in the gambling world do not know what the most
important are because they listen to the jokers on television.  A gambler has to worry about different stats than the average
person, so dont assume you know what they are - I have done the statistical testing and will answer that questions for you.   




2009 College Football: Very succesful and profitable year as we finished ranked #6 at the Sports Watch
monitor we used this season.  However, when only including handicappers that released at least 4 picks per week we
finished ranked #3, and if you only include handicappers that released as many plays as we did that puts us at #2.  So any
way you want to analyze it the season was HUGE, SUCCESFUL and PROFITABLE for the 2nd straight year, firmly securing
our spot at the ABSOLUTE TOP OF ALL HANDICAPPERS IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL.

2008 College Football: The Boss just FLAT OUT KICKED ASS AND TOOK NAMES in 2008, WINNING AN
AMAZING 69% of our regular season plays, and pocketing 155 UNITS!!  For some perspective on these numbers, there is
NOT ONE OTHER HANDICAPPER IN THE ENTIRE WORLD WHO HIT 69% OF THEIR PLAYS WHEN RELEASING 108 on the
season.  And if you bet $500 max for big games, you would have PROFITED $15,500 during the regular season!  If you are a
dime max player you would have added $31K, yes 31 THOUSAND DOLLARS into your BANK ACCOUNT with the SportsBoss'
plays this season.  Expect another massive winning season in 2009!

The SportsBoss
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