We finished the NFL SEASON AT 23-9 with
the Predictor Tool!!!
In NCAA, we are ranked #1 UP 159 UNITS
and 84-46, including a 50-26 run to close
the MONSTER SEASON!
2009 NFL SEASON: Judging on last years success the BOSS and his clients are in for another profitable NFL
season, using either my model or qualitative handicapping skills. Lets look at my predictor model, hands down the best in
the industry....Whats new this season? After reading two additional NFL Handicapping books from well respected authors, I
have added numerous statistical categories to measure teams on and adjust our dual power ratings. New this season
include first downs, opponents record and schedule strength, gain per offensive play, third and fourth down conversion
percentages along with additional defensive categories each team is measured on each game. Along with adding stats we
have made the process of changing power ratings uniform and removed the subjectivity and human error from the process.
Doing that was a tiresome statistical process involving testing, correlations and regression analysis, but we now feel more
comfortable than ever that this model is robust, intuitive, analytical and more important will make money for my clients. It
also cut down my weekly upkeep on it as most is now automated which will give me additional time to handicap each game
non-inclusive of the model. To recap the process involving the model:
Once both power ratings are finalized for a given week for each team, I look at the schedule and compare the difference
between both teams ratings including a margin for home field advantage. This spread then becomes my "numerical gap",
which then gets tweaked by half point to a point after a minor series of tests related to emotional edges in games. After
completing that testing, I have my predicted margin of victory for one team or another.
My predicted margin of victory is compared to the actual line of the game set by Vegas, and if it differs by a certain gap I
have defined for my eyes only, it then becomes a play.
Keep in mind, lines are not set to predict the final margin of the game, they are set in hopes of getting 50% of money on the
favorite, and 50% of money on the underdog. Vegas sets lines on Sunday evening for the following week taking into
consideration how teams have faired every week that season, how teams have faired recently, trends between the two
teams, and most importantly the action the bookmakers have seen on each team weekly.
This tool strips out all the subjective data the odds-makers use when setting their lines, and just looks at pure performance
on the field.- one set of power ratings adjusts for statistical performance while the second adjusts for performance against
Vegas' spreads. Certain stats are key to winning football games, but most in the gambling world do not know what the most
important are because they listen to the jokers on television. A gambler has to worry about different stats than the average
person, so dont assume you know what they are - I have done the statistical testing and will answer that questions for you.
2009 College Football: I was the best handicapper in the country last year in college football, there is really
just no doubt or arguing that point. I know what variables to use, I know how to measure them, I understand what college
kids are feeling and ready for emotionally, and I understand where oddsmakers make mistakes when attempting to
handicap and lay spreads for college sports. This coming season will be no different then last year as I will again be the #1
capper in the industry.
2008 College Football: The Boss is looking to pile on his VERY PROFITABLE 2007 season. I know the trends to
watch, the angles to play on, how to measure the all important emotion in college football games, and how the younger
players will step in and start in BIG TIME college football. College Football is a very tricky sport to master as it can be very
fickle, and teams can play great one week, and look like a D3 team the following week. I have studied 20 years of results,
been handing out winners for nearly 15 years and will continue to do so this year. Don't miss out on my always special
BOSS BEATDOWN Thursday night games, as the slate this year is the best ESPN has ever had!!!!
the Predictor Tool!!!
In NCAA, we are ranked #1 UP 159 UNITS
and 84-46, including a 50-26 run to close
the MONSTER SEASON!
2009 NFL SEASON: Judging on last years success the BOSS and his clients are in for another profitable NFL
season, using either my model or qualitative handicapping skills. Lets look at my predictor model, hands down the best in
the industry....Whats new this season? After reading two additional NFL Handicapping books from well respected authors, I
have added numerous statistical categories to measure teams on and adjust our dual power ratings. New this season
include first downs, opponents record and schedule strength, gain per offensive play, third and fourth down conversion
percentages along with additional defensive categories each team is measured on each game. Along with adding stats we
have made the process of changing power ratings uniform and removed the subjectivity and human error from the process.
Doing that was a tiresome statistical process involving testing, correlations and regression analysis, but we now feel more
comfortable than ever that this model is robust, intuitive, analytical and more important will make money for my clients. It
also cut down my weekly upkeep on it as most is now automated which will give me additional time to handicap each game
non-inclusive of the model. To recap the process involving the model:
- uses two separate power rating systems
- 12 different statistical categories on both offense and defense that move those power ratings
- movement of one power rating has to do with how well teams do over a multiple week period in all categories
combined; certain thresholds need to be met in each category to move up or down - the second power rating moves purely on a formula that relates to ATS margin
Once both power ratings are finalized for a given week for each team, I look at the schedule and compare the difference
between both teams ratings including a margin for home field advantage. This spread then becomes my "numerical gap",
which then gets tweaked by half point to a point after a minor series of tests related to emotional edges in games. After
completing that testing, I have my predicted margin of victory for one team or another.
My predicted margin of victory is compared to the actual line of the game set by Vegas, and if it differs by a certain gap I
have defined for my eyes only, it then becomes a play.
Keep in mind, lines are not set to predict the final margin of the game, they are set in hopes of getting 50% of money on the
favorite, and 50% of money on the underdog. Vegas sets lines on Sunday evening for the following week taking into
consideration how teams have faired every week that season, how teams have faired recently, trends between the two
teams, and most importantly the action the bookmakers have seen on each team weekly.
This tool strips out all the subjective data the odds-makers use when setting their lines, and just looks at pure performance
on the field.- one set of power ratings adjusts for statistical performance while the second adjusts for performance against
Vegas' spreads. Certain stats are key to winning football games, but most in the gambling world do not know what the most
important are because they listen to the jokers on television. A gambler has to worry about different stats than the average
person, so dont assume you know what they are - I have done the statistical testing and will answer that questions for you.
2009 College Football: I was the best handicapper in the country last year in college football, there is really
just no doubt or arguing that point. I know what variables to use, I know how to measure them, I understand what college
kids are feeling and ready for emotionally, and I understand where oddsmakers make mistakes when attempting to
handicap and lay spreads for college sports. This coming season will be no different then last year as I will again be the #1
capper in the industry.
2008 College Football: The Boss is looking to pile on his VERY PROFITABLE 2007 season. I know the trends to
watch, the angles to play on, how to measure the all important emotion in college football games, and how the younger
players will step in and start in BIG TIME college football. College Football is a very tricky sport to master as it can be very
fickle, and teams can play great one week, and look like a D3 team the following week. I have studied 20 years of results,
been handing out winners for nearly 15 years and will continue to do so this year. Don't miss out on my always special
BOSS BEATDOWN Thursday night games, as the slate this year is the best ESPN has ever had!!!!
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The SportsBoss
1-888-345-BOSS
BOSS@THESPORTSBOSS.COM