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The SportsBoss
WILDCARD SATURDAY : CLIENTS PICKS AND WRITE-UPS
Here are the actual picks and support write-ups sent to clients on Saturday January 7, 2012. The purpose of this is to give you a feel for our style.
First wild card game we are playing 3* Texans.
In the playoff power ratings model I have HOU -5.38pts, including a 4.5pt adjustment for the QB position which may be too high - so basically I may have this line closer to a TD.
In my season long performance ratings HOU dominates CIN as HOU has outperformed their opponent in 9 of their last 10 games, and 13 of 16 on the season. When teams outperform
their opponent in these ratings they cover 75% of the time - yes, extremely high, but that is the case with these numbers backtested the last three seasons - and obviously the higher teams
score the more likely they cover. If teams score 90+ they cover 90% of the time - HOU is proj to score 90 in 2 of the 3 models - the only one they arent is the "last 3 model" as HOU comes
in struggling some since the win at CIN.
In my units ratings HOU has edge in all 8, off/def/misc/total for both off and def. The only one that is even close is the HOU rush offense vs the CIN rush defense, but it still edges for HOU.
In my stat rankings HOU has a large edge, as CIN has no edges offensively. CIN off also has no stats where they rank in top ten. On other side of ball HOU has edges both rushing and
passing; need to downgrade the passing edge some with the QB change, but with CIN checking in @ #26 in INT, that doesnt bode well for CIN.
My regression analysis favors HOU by 4-6pts.
The home/away model favors HOU driven by their defense - which is comforting because if their OFF drove the edge it would have to be taken with a grain of salt because of the QB
position.
I think this game may be close for a half or so, but eventually that HOU defense with Wade Phillips back on the sidelines will make a few big plays vs. the rookie QB - and Yates will have
both Foster and AJ the entire game to make big plays for themselves. Include a nice homefield edge and I see a HOU cover here.
Nightcap Saturday taking 3* Saints
You all know by now I rarely take lines this big, so there has to be a big big reason why I feel so comfortable with this game. Lets take a look at my models and databases:
I set this # at NO -14 using playoff power ratings, while using regular season ratings its NO -11.75. The playoff power ratings are designed to be a little more specific, and increase the
impact of variance between team performance because the teams in playoffs are all good - so must get more granular and adjust the ratings accordingly based on that performance.
NO has outperformed their last 6 opponents, and all 8 opponents they played at home this season in the performance ratings model. Again, if a team outperforms another in this model
they cover 75% of the time - and the more the ratings increase the better chance of ATS coverage. 4 of NO's last 6 games they rated a 99+ - those kind of ratings are almost 100% ATS
cover range. DET on the other hand is 4-4 on road in ratings, and only outperformed 1 of their last 5 games. They have not rated a 90 on road since Wk10.
The unit breakdown is a little tough to reach conclusions as DET has played a much tougher schedule than NO on the season, especially the DET def vs. the NO off. On season DET
faced 12th toughest schedule while NO faced #31.
I feel the flow of this game will be critical. And with the game being in NO i really like the Saints experience and that rowdy homefield advantage, along with the fact NO lost in first round
last season and wll be ultra focused in redemption this year - and the fact DET has the penchant to fall apart with penalties and just general inexperience that we are going to lay the points
here and take the Saints. I do think a half pt may be a good idea tonight if you have 10.5 as it should be only a dime vs. a double dime when we are talking 3 or 7 line hooks.
FOR ADDITIONAL METRICS AND ONE OF OUR FAVORITE PIECES OF DATA WE USE BREAKING DOWN NFL GAMES CHECK OUT OUR BLOG, LINKED ABOVE TOOLBAR.
Here are the actual picks and support write-ups sent to clients on Saturday January 7, 2012. The purpose of this is to give you a feel for our style.
First wild card game we are playing 3* Texans.
In the playoff power ratings model I have HOU -5.38pts, including a 4.5pt adjustment for the QB position which may be too high - so basically I may have this line closer to a TD.
In my season long performance ratings HOU dominates CIN as HOU has outperformed their opponent in 9 of their last 10 games, and 13 of 16 on the season. When teams outperform
their opponent in these ratings they cover 75% of the time - yes, extremely high, but that is the case with these numbers backtested the last three seasons - and obviously the higher teams
score the more likely they cover. If teams score 90+ they cover 90% of the time - HOU is proj to score 90 in 2 of the 3 models - the only one they arent is the "last 3 model" as HOU comes
in struggling some since the win at CIN.
In my units ratings HOU has edge in all 8, off/def/misc/total for both off and def. The only one that is even close is the HOU rush offense vs the CIN rush defense, but it still edges for HOU.
In my stat rankings HOU has a large edge, as CIN has no edges offensively. CIN off also has no stats where they rank in top ten. On other side of ball HOU has edges both rushing and
passing; need to downgrade the passing edge some with the QB change, but with CIN checking in @ #26 in INT, that doesnt bode well for CIN.
My regression analysis favors HOU by 4-6pts.
The home/away model favors HOU driven by their defense - which is comforting because if their OFF drove the edge it would have to be taken with a grain of salt because of the QB
position.
I think this game may be close for a half or so, but eventually that HOU defense with Wade Phillips back on the sidelines will make a few big plays vs. the rookie QB - and Yates will have
both Foster and AJ the entire game to make big plays for themselves. Include a nice homefield edge and I see a HOU cover here.
Nightcap Saturday taking 3* Saints
You all know by now I rarely take lines this big, so there has to be a big big reason why I feel so comfortable with this game. Lets take a look at my models and databases:
I set this # at NO -14 using playoff power ratings, while using regular season ratings its NO -11.75. The playoff power ratings are designed to be a little more specific, and increase the
impact of variance between team performance because the teams in playoffs are all good - so must get more granular and adjust the ratings accordingly based on that performance.
NO has outperformed their last 6 opponents, and all 8 opponents they played at home this season in the performance ratings model. Again, if a team outperforms another in this model
they cover 75% of the time - and the more the ratings increase the better chance of ATS coverage. 4 of NO's last 6 games they rated a 99+ - those kind of ratings are almost 100% ATS
cover range. DET on the other hand is 4-4 on road in ratings, and only outperformed 1 of their last 5 games. They have not rated a 90 on road since Wk10.
The unit breakdown is a little tough to reach conclusions as DET has played a much tougher schedule than NO on the season, especially the DET def vs. the NO off. On season DET
faced 12th toughest schedule while NO faced #31.
I feel the flow of this game will be critical. And with the game being in NO i really like the Saints experience and that rowdy homefield advantage, along with the fact NO lost in first round
last season and wll be ultra focused in redemption this year - and the fact DET has the penchant to fall apart with penalties and just general inexperience that we are going to lay the points
here and take the Saints. I do think a half pt may be a good idea tonight if you have 10.5 as it should be only a dime vs. a double dime when we are talking 3 or 7 line hooks.
FOR ADDITIONAL METRICS AND ONE OF OUR FAVORITE PIECES OF DATA WE USE BREAKING DOWN NFL GAMES CHECK OUT OUR BLOG, LINKED ABOVE TOOLBAR.
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